AI Agents will accelerate global GDP growth, if organizations deploy them for growth.
I expect GDP growth to accelerate over the next five to ten years, with AI Agents as a principal cause. Among economists, the question is less whether AI will raise productivity than by how much, and the range of estimates is wide. Goldman Sachs Research has projected that generative AI could raise global GDP by 7 percent over a decade and lift annual productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points. MIT economist Daron Acemoglu, by contrast, estimates a gain of no more than 0.66 percent in total factor productivity over ten years.
The difference between these estimates is instructive. Acemoglu’s estimate rests on the cost savings AI produces in the tasks it affects. If organizations use AI Agents only to perform existing work more cheaply, the modest estimate may well prove correct. Faster growth needs more than savings. Organizations must use agents to produce more, reach customers sooner, serve demand they previously had to turn away and offer services that were not previously economic to deliver. This applies with particular force where labor is scarce. In the conditions I describe in The AI Agent Mandate as the Perfect Labor Storm, agents allow output to grow where hiring cannot keep pace.
This is where my work with companies is focused. I help organizations identify the revenue-growth drivers within their operations, such as the speed at which capacity reaches the market, the volume a team can handle and the services that become viable when the cost of delivery falls, and then redesign those workflows around AI Agents.
The early macroeconomic evidence is encouraging but not yet conclusive. US labor productivity has grown at an annualized rate of about 2.1 percent since late 2019. The acceleration I anticipate will come as the emphasis shifts from building AI capacity to applying it, and from reducing cost to creating growth.

